China expected to post slowest quarterly growth this year: analysts

BEIJING: The Chinese economy has probably experienced its slowest growth this year, according to an AFP survey published Friday October 18, as authorities struggle to revive consumption amid a chronic debt crisis in the sector real estate.

Authorities have in recent weeks unveiled a series of measures aimed at reviving the world’s second-largest economy and ending years of economic depression, with the aim of achieving annual growth of 5 percent.

But after a meteoric market rally fueled by hopes of a long-awaited “bazooka stimulus”, optimism waned as authorities refrained from providing a precise figure for the bailout or fleshing out pledges.

Officials will unveil third-quarter figures on Friday, with analysts polled by AFP forecasting growth of 4.5 percent, following growth of 4.7 percent in the previous three months and 5.3 percent in January to March.

“The Chinese economy got a boost in September,” said Harry Murphy Cruise, an economist at Moody’s Analytics, referring to the stimulus measures but added that investors were “disappointed” by the lack of additional announcements.

Beijing unveiled a series of measures in September aimed at injecting liquidity into the economy, including a series of rate cuts and an easing of restrictions on home purchases.

But these supports “won’t be enough” to address problems in the property market – once a key driver of China’s economy, Murphy Cruise warned.

Analysts surveyed by AFP forecast overall growth of 4.9% in 2024, even worse than last year, which was the weakest in decades, excluding Covid-19.

Beijing has said it is “fully confident” in its ability to meet its target this year and revive the economy, but analysts say officials need to go further and inject new money before the end of the year. ‘year.

The need for aid has been underscored by a long string of data releases reporting sluggish consumer activity, subdued inflation, minimal import growth and rising youth unemployment.